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Assuming a centered hit, if the club face angle at separation is at the target and the direction of the club head after separation is right of that direction, the ball will draw. No question.
As far as trackman goes, it calculates face angle based on initial launch conditions. Using impact tape and a knowledge of gear effect and D-plane, ball flight can be explained quite nicely. Vertical swing plane is measured and has nothing to with the shaft plane angle. It measures the movement of the sweet spot relative to the ground.
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