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Fun Probability problem

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Old 02-21-2007, 08:54 AM
armourall armourall is offline
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Matthew,

It's been fun, but the snow is starting to melt and it's time to start thinking golf. I'll admit I was already familiar with this problem and its "correct" answer a long time ago (I think it was in a column by Marilyn vos Savant), but it's still fun to argue the "wrong" side of an argument. Sorry I couldn't challenge you more.

Cheers.
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Old 02-21-2007, 07:38 PM
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Mathew Mathew is offline
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Originally Posted by armourall View Post
Matthew,

It's been fun, but the snow is starting to melt and it's time to start thinking golf. I'll admit I was already familiar with this problem and its "correct" answer a long time ago (I think it was in a column by Marilyn vos Savant), but it's still fun to argue the "wrong" side of an argument. Sorry I couldn't challenge you more.

Cheers.
Thats cool

Maybe I should keep this going...

Heres another probability problem

What is the chances of being dealt the Ace of spades and the Ace of diamonds when playing texas hold'em?

Say after the flop comes with 3 spades showing. What is the chances of making a flush with the turn card, the river card and both?

Lets say there were $2500 in the pot preflop and your opponent moves all in after the flop and has you covered, and you have $2100 left. Would calling this bet be profitable over the long run?

Last edited by Mathew : 02-21-2007 at 07:41 PM.
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Old 02-22-2007, 09:05 AM
armourall armourall is offline
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Not that familiar with Hold 'em, so I'll sit this hand out. Just to finish up on Monty, here is what I consider to be the correct rundown of the probabilities: (My previous "flawed" argument conveniently excluded possibilities #4 and #6.)
  1. The player originally picked the car. The door with goat 1 is revealed. The remaining door has goat 2. (1/6)
  2. The player originally picked the car. The door with goat 2 is revealed. The remaining door has goat 1. (1/6)
  3. The player originally picked goat 1. The door with goat 2 is revealed. The remaining door has the car. (2/6)
  4. The player originally picked goat 1. The door with the car is revealed. The remaining door has goat 2. (0/6)
    (Rules don’t allow this option, so probability of #3 outcome is doubled.)
  5. The player originally picked goat 2. The door with goat 1 is revealed. The remaining door has the car. (2/6)
  6. The player originally picked goat 2. The door with the car is revealed. The remaining door has goat 1. (0/6)
    (Rules don’t allow this option, so probability of #5 outcome is doubled.)
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Old 02-22-2007, 09:55 AM
mrodock mrodock is offline
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But what if all you really want is a goat?
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"In my experience, if you stay with the essentials you WILL build a repeatable swing undoubtedly. If you can master the Imperatives you have a champion" (Vikram).

The reason you can't sustain the lag is because you are so eager to make the club move fast (a reaction to the intent of "hitting it far"). So on a full shot you throw it away too early, which doesn't happen for your short chip. (bts)
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